Holiday shopping in the United States is expected to cross the trillion‑dollar mark for the first time. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that sales in November and December will reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. That’s up from $976 billion last year. NRF President Matthew Shay explained, “We see consumers sharing with us their attitudes and their sentiments, which are by historic standards, continue to be very, very low — and yet they continue to spend and power the economy”.
This forecast suggests that while households are cautious, they’re still willing to spend during the holidays. The trillion‑dollar milestone is symbolic, showing the scale of holiday shopping in the U.S. economy. But the growth rate is slower than in past years, reflecting mixed consumer confidence.
Other firms are less optimistic. Deloitte expects growth of 2.9% to 3.4%, while PwC predicts spending will actually fall by 5% compared to 2024. These differences highlight uncertainty about how inflation and economic pressures will affect households.
Inflation Shapes Consumer Behavior
Inflation is a major factor influencing holiday spending. Surveys show Americans plan to spend less than last year, with Forbes reporting a 5% pullback, the steepest in five years. Deloitte noted that disposable personal income is growing slowly, limiting how much households can allocate to shopping.
At the same time, online shopping continues to expand. Adobe Analytics reported that U.S. consumers spent $88.7 billion online in October, up 8.2% year over year. Artificial intelligence tools are playing a bigger role in online shopping, helping retailers personalize offers and streamline checkout experiences.
This shift shows that while people may cut back in stores, they’re still turning to online platforms for convenience and deals. Inflation may change how much they buy, but technology is shaping how they shop.
National Impact of Holiday Sales
Holiday spending is critical for the U.S. economy. November and December often account for nearly 20% of annual retail sales. Crossing the trillion‑dollar threshold matters not just for retailers but for the broader economy.
Bain & Company described the growth as “healthy,” but noted it’s below the 10‑year average of 5.2%. That means while sales are strong, they’re not accelerating at the pace seen in past holiday seasons.
For retailers, this environment creates pressure to compete on price and convenience. Companies that adapt to consumer demand for affordability and digital shopping are more likely to capture spending. For households, the message is clear: inflation is shaping choices, but holiday traditions remain important.
Consumer Psychology and Spending Choices
Understanding why people spend during the holidays helps explain the forecasts. Even when confidence is low, many households prioritize gifts, travel, and celebrations. Shay’s comment about low sentiment but continued spending reflects this dynamic. People may worry about the economy, but they still want to maintain traditions.
Retailers are responding by offering promotions earlier and leaning on digital tools. Adobe noted that AI‑driven personalization is becoming common, making online shopping feel more tailored. This can encourage spending even when budgets are tight.
For consumers, the challenge is balancing tradition with financial caution. Surveys show many plan to cut back on non‑essential items while keeping core holiday purchases. This mix of restraint and tradition explains why spending can grow even when confidence is weak.
